The first major fallout from FIDE's ever-changing World Championship cycles came today, as Magnus Carlsen has dropped out of the FIDE Grand Prix series. Originally, the Grand Prix champion was to play the World Cup winner in a Candidates Match for the right to play for the World Chess Championship. The new regulations would qualify multiple players (among with other qualifiers) from each into an 8-player Candidates Tournament instead.

As I mentioned in my last post on the subject, it's not so much that the new system is bad; it seems about as reasonable as any other. The real problem is the unpredictability and instability that comes with constant changes. If even the players can't be confident in knowing how they can qualify for the World Championship, how will they ensure they don't get left out? Not to mention the effect it has on sponsorship and public interest; it's impossible to give much prestige or hype to a qualifying event when the number of qualifiers (or the event these players are qualifying into) can change at a moment's notice.

In a move that can't really be called a surprise, FIDE has again changed the method they'll be using in the future for determining World Championship candidates. The new format calls for an eight-player Candidates Tournament (either a double round-robin or elimination matches, depending on what works for the organizer), with players qualifying in a variety of ways, such as through the World Cup or Grand Prix.

To be honest, the new format sounds just fine. It gives more players a chance to get into the penultimate event, where this small group can determine a challenger by playing amongst themselves, rather than just having two players qualify for a single Candidates Match.

The problem is the change itself. FIDE has changed the rules and format for the World Championship Cycle so many times, that it's hard to depend on any announced format actually holding up by the time the matches or tournaments are expected to be played. The world of chess could desperately use some stability -- hopefully this new format will stick around for at least a couple cycles.

After 11 exciting rounds of chess, Armenia successfully defended their Olympiad championship in the Open section, finishing one point ahead of Israel. The Armenians were led by Vladimir Akopian and Gabriel Sargissian, who were the top individual performers on boards 2 and 3 respectively. The United States won bronze after a stunning 3.5-0.5 defeat of Ukraine, whom they also beat on tiebreaks for the final medal. Interestingly, the three medal winners were the 9, 8 and 10th seeded teams - the favorites did not fare well, although (as already mentioned) Armenia were the defending champions.

In the Women's division, Georgia finished just ahead of Ukraine on tiebreaks to earn the gold. The United States again claimed the bronze medal, this time ahead of Russia and Poland on tiebreaks. The best performance by far in this section belonged to Georgia's GM Maia Chiburdanidze, who scored 7.5/9 on board 1 for the champions.

While some of the new rules (forfeits for players who don't arrive on time, no agreed draws before move 30) might get a second look, one change I hope will stay is the switch to match points determining the standings. Personally, it never made much sense for a team tournament to be determined by board points for me; it essentially made the individual match results meaningless, as a 2.5-1.5 split was only a very minor improvement over a 2-2 draw, and there was no match strategy involved for teammates. Allowing match results to determine the winners brings the Olympiad in line with most team chess events, and adds tension to games which otherwise might have no influence on the standings.

The 2008 Chess Olympiad has reached its final round, with several teams still in contention on the final day.

In the Open section, Armenia and Ukraine are tied for the lead with 17 points (teams receive 2 points for a won match, and 1 point for a draw), while several other teams remain in contention: China and Israel have 16 points each, while the United States, the Netherlands, Russia and Spain all have 15 and could factor into the medal picture. The leaders are all playing each other in the final round; China faces Armenia, the USA takes on Ukraine, Israel faces off with the Netherlands, and Russia takes on Spain. Everything is up for grabs -- although Armenia and Ukraine are clearly in the best position.

In the Women's division, Poland has surprised everyone and taken the clear lead going into the last day. Poland, the #9 seed, has 17 points -- one ahead of Ukraine, Georgia and Serbia. At 15 points, the United States and Russia are both still in contention as well. Poland takes on Ukraine, while Georgia battles Serbia.

The final round starts at 10 AM local time, and games can be seen on the official site. It's hard to predict who the favorites are over the course of a single day of matches, but with so much on the line, you can expect lots of interesting, hard fought chess on the top boards.